Abstract
Introduction:
Infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 has been found to have serious consequences for the cardiovascular system. Among these, the development of heart failure (HF) has been stipulated; however, its causality has not yet been established. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of clinical and laboratory parameters in determining the risk of developing HF in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Methodology:
151 electronic medical records were taken from hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and pneumonia, from 03/11/20 to 10/02/21. HF was diagnosed by signs and symptoms, elevated NTproBNP and echocardiogram. Nonparametric statistical tests were applied due to the lack of normality in the data distribution.
Results were considered statistically significant at p<.05. uncorrelated clinical and laboratory indicators were selected to predict hf validated with separate samples. confidence intervals (95% ci) calculated for all listed metrics. oversampling was used in the training set. resulting binary classification model showed validity evaluated metrics roc curves. results: study included 46 patients 105 without hf. median age 66.2 (50-92) years, a predominance of women 91 (60.3%). most both groups had concomitant diseases, however group more ≥4 diseases (63%). significant risk predictors ≥66 years (p < 0.001), procalcitonin level ≥0.09 ng />ml (p <.001), thrombocytopenia ≤220-10^9 />l (p = 0.01), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥4,11% (p =0,010), history of chronic kidney disease (p =0.018).
Conclusion:
A possible predictive model including age, procalcitonin, creatinine, bilirubin, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, platelets, international normalized ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, as well as QTc interval on electrocardiogram and history of chronic kidney disease has been found that could identify patients with COVID-19 at risk of developing heart failure, which will allow more effective and earlier care